Done，Me More Cool

1.3.2019  Thur, Cloudy, Air Polluted

Summary：欧美市场多日下跌叠加油价因产油大国减产反弹等因素作用下，对冲PMI不利因素深跌后反弹，但apple于美国收市后宣布下调盈利预期再度引发避险情绪。坚持看好H1我国资产的表现。

Euro  Session:

With Nikkei closed out for holidays, Asia markets were supposed to a quiet and slow start for the year of 2019. But at the moment of the weakness of China manufacture sectors was double checked that Caixin Dec manu PMI turned out only 49.7 vs 50.2 expected. data, the negative impact came through strong and persistent. Finally most local bourses were trapped in the sea of red.

EU bourses continue to bleed on growth concerns. The global bond rally well extend to Europe with 10yr bund yield falling below 0.18%, first time since 2017. Eu mfg PMI was unchanged from the preliminary reading of 51.4, but that is the lowest since Feb 2016, and chances of stabilization slim with present trend of China`s major headlines. 

Finally, EU stocks recovered from most of its early loss especially while US indexes are tending to recover on oil reversal around 10 o`clock.

Economy data:

4:55, DEU Dec manu PMI final 51.5 vs flash 51.5; new orders fell to 51.5 from 51.8 in Nov

5:30, UK Dec Manu PMI 54.2 vs 52.5, prior 53.6; New orders rose tp 56.1 vs 54.1 in Nov

US Session:

After trading lower at the open, US equity markets spent most of the US session recapturing their earlier losses while Treasuries pivoted flatter as the bond (-4.25bp) outperformed on the curve. The most decisive factors behind this could be the oil king. OPEC output fell by 530,000 barrels per day in December, the largest decline in 2-years, per Bloomberg estimates. Saudi Arabia’s production was down by 420k barrels per day, while exports were estimated to be ~500k bpd lower. How dare MBS do this? I really wonder.

As to the shutdown, Trump invited congressional leaders to a White House briefing on border security as the partial government shutdown dragged on over funding for a border wall.In sweeping comments ahead of this  meeting, Trump warned that the shutdown could last a long time and repeated demands for border wall funding. Trump said he would “rather not say” if he would accept a lower level of border wall funding than he is currently seeking. Right now,  this meeting was just over without any constructive progress. Pelosi, who will take control of the House tobight, was reported to plan to avoid debt-ceiling fights by reviving the “Gephardt Rule” which would limit each party’s ability to stall votes over raising the debt ceiling. The rule would apply to the House and makes debt-ceiling increases automatic each time congress passes a budget that exceeds the limit.

Around 6:30 this morning,  Apple decide to cut its revenue outlook on weakness in China, which triggered a series of vehement reaction. It`s ridiculous for Apple to ascribe its own failure to China`s slowing economy. He is beaten by himself.

Economy data:

10:30, Canada Dec. Markit mfg PMI 53.6, prior 54.7.

10:45, US Dec. final Markit mfg PMI 53.8 vs. 53.9, flash 53.9.

Key Data And Events Ahead:

EMU M3 money supply

UK Markit/CIPS construction PMI

US ADP employment, initial jobless claims, ISM manufacturing

Comments: 

Happy New Year! Markets welcome 2019 with risk-sentiment on the back-foot. What market desperately need now? First, Trump would better stop criticizing Powell; Second, US administration stop shutdown; Third, A trade deal between China and US should be reached as soon as possible. Let`s check out these items one by one. No matter what Trump had said on Powell, the Fed chairman would have to take some Williams stance by emphasizing  data-dependent. Honestly speaking, I think the market is overdone on this. Then the government shut seems no way to be solved soon. Just as told in this notes many times before , this is one of the most severe consequence out of the mid, which has not been well priced by the market. At last, From Dec 1st on, we can clearly see both sides did make some practical effort to cast some optimism on the final agreement. What left then? US own internal problem which spoiled the sentiment at an untouchable pace. What does the title of today`s notes mean? The coldest time for China assets is gone, where "me more cool" is a dramatic description of a traditional pants Chinese people wear in Winters.

ps:昨天是不是很多机构没有上班，临近收盘的时候交易所回购一下涨了那么多。凑巧的是，隔夜美国回购市场也是非常躁动，均值3.3%，最高3.75%。12月31日那天达到5.75%。当天， Trump发推说大家在过节，自己还在WH加班.谁不是呢?估计天下银行人都在加班做年终决算。美国也有银行间的货币市场，就是规模小点儿。08年金融危机之前，交投十分活跃，每天交易额大概在1000亿美元左右，但是现在只有不到50亿美金。主要原因就是美联储注入大量的流动性以及巴塞尔协议三框架下银行监管的新要求。尤其是美联储出面购买的高质量流动性资产作用明显，导致现在所有的美资银行资产负债表上都有大量的超额储备。这就使得美国的银行彼此之间拆借头寸，弥补短期流动性不足的需求大大削弱。现在美联储缩表已经达到每个月500亿美元的规模了，那是不是就说这个市场可以恢复呢.目前看,美国银行业扩张资产负债表最大限制在于巴塞尔协议III下的杠杆比例（leverage  ratio）以及美国联邦存款保险公司（Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation， FDIC）所征收的评估费（资产负债表在500亿以上，要向FDIC交存款保险，以下的就不用）。也许有读者会问，不可能吧，现在但是美国市场第三方回购一天得好几千亿呢。没错，那主要是非银行机构和银行机构以及券商保险资管之前所做的交易，我们这里谈的银行间货币市场，就好比31日那天的国内银行间，纯粹是银行间做短期流动性交易的市场。现在银行间的这个货币市场流动性如此之差，必然使得未来美联储进一步所表的负面影响得到体现，所以将来看到这方面的监管有所松动的话，不足为奇。

这里面就引出了两个概念，一个是美联储给存款保险机构超额储备的利率（IOER， intererst rates on excess reserve），再一个就是美联储给存款保险机构法定准备金的利率(IORR, interest rates on required reserve)，两者都可以成为IOR。在08危机刚露头的时候，这两个利率，还曾有不同，但伴随着美联储大规模注入流动性后，很快就合二为一了。在2018年以前，这个利率本来一直是贴着利率走廊的上限，只是在2018年才因为各种原因出现了差异。在现在的美国货币市场不是所有交易机构都能享受这个利率的，能够得到美联储窗口指导的几乎都是美国当地的银行，包括外资银行的美国分支机构。而那些不能够得到美联储窗口指导的金融机构往往愿意以低于IOR/IOER/IORR的价格出借隔夜资金，这就使得套利的出现。根据美联储的研究（相关数据并不公开），这种行为的参与主体主要是因为资产负债表较小，而不用交存款保险的美国中小银行以及只需要按月或者按季计算杠杆率的外资银行美国当地机构。有些时候，美国本土的大银行因为信誉好，能够从小机构能拿到较为便宜的资金也会参与其中的套利交易。这种套利的一个直接后果就是打通了境外的欧洲美元和美国境内货币市场隔夜流动性互通有无——至于三个月期乃至更长期限那就是另一个故事了。

个人微信zhangke8639，欢迎同业交换名片。公众号更新速度快一点儿....排版也好一点点儿....

近期重要时间点：

1月4日，Powell，Bernanke and Yellen集体采访，主持人为NYT的Neil Irwin

2月8日，美国政府关门考验

3月21日，EU 峰会

3月29日，脱欧谈判截止

5月23-26日，欧洲议会选举

6月4-5日，FED研讨会,议题为“策略，工具以及沟通实践”

Appendix：his t overnight

0102   0853  For FAR TOO LONG Senate Democrats have been Obstructing more than 350 Nominations. These great Americans left their jobs to serve our Country, but can’t because Dems are blocking them, some for two years-historic record. Passed committees, but Schumer putting them on hold. Bad!

0102  2058  Here we go with Mitt Romney, but so fast! Question will be, is he a Flake? I hope not. Would much prefer that Mitt focus on Border Security and so many other things where he can be helpful. I won big, and he didn’t. He should be happy for all Republicans. Be a TEAM player & WIN!

0102  2138  Mexico is paying for the Wall through the new USMCA Trade Deal. Much of the Wall has already been fully renovated or built. We have done a lot of work. $5.6 Billion Dollars that House has approved is very little in comparison to the benefits of National Security. Quick payback!

0103  0808  Important meeting today on Border Security with Republican and Democrat Leaders in Congress. Both parties must work together to pass a Funding Bill that protects this Nation and its people – this is the first and most important duty of government...

...I remain ready and willing to work with Democrats to pass a bill that secures our borders, supports the agents and officers on the ground, and keeps America Safe. Let’s get it done!

Disclaimer：This material was prepared in private name and out of pernaonal hobby,definitely based upon facts and robust analysis with delicate consideration of highly professionality.But with no means to conduct any trade , and before using the contents of this note in any internal or external communication, please ensure you are comfortable and fully aware this could not be sufficient enough as any action base.

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